4 Players I'm Buying High in Dynasty
Everyone always talks about buying low and selling high but it’s almost impossible to do that in dynasty fantasy football. Most people know that their player is either a buy low or a sell high so they won’t do the deal you want them to. Unless someone has been living under a rock, they know how the dynasty community feels about their players. Since it’s rare to pull off the buy low, sometimes you have to get your guy, even if you have to pay market value.
I want to talk about players that I’m willing to buy high. These are guys that are not cheap by any means, but they are guys that I think are worth their current price and they even have some room to appreciate in value if things break right for them. Overall, these are just guys that I want on my teams and I’m willing to pay their current price. Again, you can’t always steal players in trades, especially when everyone in the league wants them. Now let’s get to the guys I’m buying high.
Jerry Jeudy
When I think of the short list of my favorite breakout wide receivers for 2022, Jeudy is at the top of that list. He has struggled in his first 2 years in the league but I don’t think it was all on him. Jeudy’s rookie year probably had some of the worst quarterback play with a bunch of different guys taking snaps at QB. Drew Lock started for most of the year, but he was injured on and off throughout the season. The backups Jeff Driskel and Brett Rypien didn’t provide much for the offense when they played. There was even a game where all 3 quarterbacks were hurt and Kendall Hinton, a wide receiver had to start at quarterback in an emergency situation. Not how the Broncos drew it up that year.
Despite the quarterback situation, Jeudy actually put up solid numbers as a rookie with a stat line of 113 targets for 52 receptions, 856 yards, and 3 touchdowns. You can see just how bad the quarterback play was with a 46% catch rate. The average catch rate for an NFL wide receiver is about 62%. I’m willing to say Jeudy has above-average NFL wide receiver talent, so to catch only 46% of his targets, the QB play must have been bad.
When Teddy Bridgewater came to town in 2021, big things were expected from Jerry Jeudy. He theoretically got a quarterback upgrade as Bridgewater had helped Panthers’ receivers DJ Moore and Robby Anderson to both post top 24 seasons in 2020. Things did not go as planned in 2021 however. Jeudy injured his ankle in week 1 and did not return to the lineup until week 8. Once Jeudy was back on the field he did not meet expectations for his 2nd year as he posted just 7.5 PPR points per game in the 9 games back from his injury. A lot of people were writing Jeudy off after the 2021 season.
But then in one of the first of many off-season blockbusters, the Broncos made a huge trade for Russell Wilson. With Wilson throwing to them, DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett have both been top 15 fantasy wide receivers in the past 2 years. Seems like a huge upgrade over what Jeudy has been working with his first 2 seasons.
Jeudy was a deep threat in college with 17.2 yards per catch over his 3 years. He now has one of the best deep-ball passers in the league throwing him the ball. Overall though, Russell Wilson is going to elevate this offense to the best the Broncos have seen since Peyton Manning’s historic 2013 season. The offense may not reach those levels, but I’m confident this will be one of Russell Wilson’s best years as a passer.
No one should benefit more from the QB upgrade than Jerry Jeudy. There are a lot of people who feel Courtland Sutton is the team’s WR1, but in the games that Jeudy and Sutton both played, Jeudy averaged 8.4 points and Sutton averaged 4.9 points. Not a huge difference I know, but that’s over 10 games so it’s a decent sample size. Now, I fully expect Sutton to be viable in 2022 because Wilson has shown he can support 2 good wide receivers for fantasy. However, I still think Jeudy is the WR1 on this team both in real-life and for fantasy.
Many people will claim that Sutton is similar in size to DK Metcalf so he is the WR1, but this is a completely different team and offense. We shouldn’t project a role onto someone because they fit a similar profile as the last player who had that role. The numbers tell the story that when Jeudy and Sutton were both on the field in 2021, Jeudy was the WR1. I expect that to continue with Russell Wilson taking over.
I’m expecting a big season for Jeudy in 2022. With the quality of targets going way up, Jeudy’s catch rate should see a huge spike. In 2020 when Russell Wilson was fully healthy, DK Metcalf had a 64% catch rate and Tyler Lockett had a 75% catch rate. As for targets, I think Jeudy should see more than his rookie year, but let’s use 113 as his baseline for 2022. If we assume Jeudy can get to a league-average 62% catch rate, which should be possible, taking his rookie efficiency levels here’s what his stats could look like:
Targets: 113
Catches: 70
Yards: 1,153
TDs: 4
Those stats are eerily similar to DJ Moore’s 2020 season that saw him finish as the WR23, but I’m expecting more from Jeudy. I think the catch rate will be a little higher and the touchdown rate will be higher as well. Russell Wilson will lead this team to plenty of red zone drives so touchdowns should be easier to come by. More catches and more touchdowns equal more fantasy points, so I’m expecting Jeudy to be at least in the top 20 fantasy wide receivers. The ceiling could be even higher though, we truly don’t know what Jeudy is capable of with a good quarterback.
The price has gone up for Jeudy since the Russell Wilson trade, but there’s room for it to go higher. I can see Jeudy breaking into the Tee Higgins value tier next year which would make him worth roughly 2 1sts. Right now, you can get Jeudy for less than that, probably a 1st and a lesser asset, like a late 2nd or a depth player like Tyler Boyd. That’s a move I’d make all day for Jeudy as I think this is the cheapest you’ll be able to buy him for a while. I see some huge games coming for Jeudy in 2022, so trade for him before one of those blow-up games.
Breece Hall
Breece Hall was at the top of the prospects list in the 2022 draft class, but before the combine, he was ranked anywhere in the top 5 players in rookie dynasty drafts. After his incredible combine, he is firmly the number 1 pick in rookie drafts, and there is some significant separation between him and the next tier. Hall ended up with the Jets which may not look so great at first, but if we dig a little deeper I think it’s actually a good spot for him.
The good thing about Hall’s situation is that he can push for 15+ touches per game right away. Hall is a big running back at 6’1” and 220 pounds, which is what you want from your lead back. Hall has proven he can handle a big workload as he did so extremely well in all 3 years in college. Hall is significantly bigger than his backfield mate Michael Carter who is 5’8” and 201. So you’re telling me that Hall is bigger, faster, more talented, and has much greater draft capital than Carter? Yeah, it’s Hall’s backfield.
Carter isn’t going anywhere though as he’s going into his 2nd year and coming off a rookie year as the RB29 in fantasy. Carter will probably take 10-12 touches per game to keep Hall fresh, but in today’s NFL, that’s the norm. If we’re being honest, that’s what we want from our running backs as dynasty players. We want our studs to last as long as possible, right? I’d rather my running back be kept fresh and stay healthy than get ran into the ground and break down after 4 years as we’ve seen with Todd Gurley and Leveon Bell in recent years. The main thing to keep in mind is the Jets would not have drafted Hall, in the early 2nd round no less, if they felt Carter was capable of a workhorse role.
The Jets have historically not been a good team for running back production, but I think that’s about to change. With all of the good, young weapons that Zach Wilson has around him, it would be hard for him to truly fail. I can’t remember the last time a 2nd year quarterback on a bad team had this many good offensive players around him, so if Wilson can at least be average this year, Hall, Elijah Moore, and Garret Wilson should all be good for fantasy. But this is dynasty we’re talking about, so we don’t just care about 2022.
Breece Hall was a touchdown machine in college and I don’t see that changing in the NFL. Some guys just have a natural ability at finding the end zone, think of guys like Alvin Kamara and Kareem Hunt. Hall is one of the few players who doesn’t need a ton of goal-line carries to score a lot of touchdowns. Hall will no doubt use his breakaway speed to get free and take some runs to the house. Hall will be getting most of the work when the Jets are near the goal line though. It wouldn’t make much sense for Michael Carter to get significant touches there.
The main thing that we care about for Breece Hall is that he’s a super talented and athletic running back at just 21 years old. He can be very good for a long time. Now, everyone knows this so his price isn’t cheap. Hall is already valued as a top 6-8 running back in dynasty. Is this too high for a guy who’s never played before? Maybe. Let’s look at the most recent example of a rookie running back skyrocketing in value: Najee Harris. Harris was already valued as a top 10 running back before he stepped on the field as a rookie. Granted, the Steelers have a great track record with running backs and Harris was a first-round selection. After Harris’s incredible rookie year, he’s now most people’s dynasty RB2.
Another example is Javonte Williams. Williams wasn’t valued as highly as Harris as a rookie, but after a very good rookie season, Javonte Wiliams jumped into the top 5 dynasty running backs.
The rookie seasons of Harris and Javonte Williams in 2021 may be inflating Breece Hall’s current price, but I think he’s worth it. If Hall puts up a top 15 season as a rookie, which would be even better than Williams’ RB17 season, he may jump Wiliams in value because of youth and perceived upside in his second year. Let’s say Hall does even better, with a top 10 season, he may become a top 3 dynasty running back. I know these are a lot of what-ifs, but I think there are many scenarios where his value increases and few where it decreases.
If Hall puts up top 20 numbers as a rookie, which should happen, his value will at least remain the same. A top 15 or better season should increase his value. But regardless of his value, Breece Hall should be a very good fantasy running back for years. If you are looking for a young cornerstone asset to your dynasty team, look no further than Breece Hall.
Derek Carr
Quarterbacks are never cheap in Superflex and Carr is by no means cheap. He’s never been the most expensive guy but people are catching on to how good he can be with Davante Adams, Darren Waller, and Hunter Renfrow at his disposal. Carr will likely cost you a 1st plus another solid asset, but I think he’s well worth the price.
Let’s start with Carr’s age; it seems like Carr’s been around forever but he’s only 31 years old which is young for a quarterback. Carr could easily play another 5-7 years at a high level. Carr also just signed a contract extension to remain with the Raiders for 3 more years. Now, the guaranteed money is mostly in the first year so that could cause some concern, but it’s unlikely that the Raiders would move on from Carr when they're fully in win-now mode. They just sent a lot of draft capital to acquire Adams and extended him for 5 years, so he and Carr should be sticking together for a while.
With the weapons around him, I think Carr has a legitimate shot as a top 10 fantasy quarterback. Carr finished as the QB13 last year and that was with Hunter Renfrow as his WR1 and Waller in and out of the lineup. With a healthy Waller and the addition of Adams, I see a lot more touchdowns for Carr in 2022. Touchdowns were the main thing that kept Carr out of the top 10 in 2021. Carr had only 23 touchdowns in 2021. All other top 10 quarterbacks in 2021 had at least 26 total touchdowns. Davante Adams is probably the best red zone weapon in the league though so I see Carr pushing closer to 30 touchdowns in 2022.
Carr is someone I would love to have as my QB2 in a Superflex league. He has a solid floor most weeks and has a nice ceiling too, especially in divisional games which have huge shootout potential. If you’re a contending team, sending a 1st plus maybe a 2nd or another player for Carr is a solid move. I think Carr can break into the Stafford tier of dynasty QBs this year with a top 10 QB finish, and at that point, he might be worth 2 1sts. Regardless of his value though, I think Carr can be a top 10 fantasy QB for the next 3 years.
Trey Lance
Of these 4 guys I mentioned here, I think Lance is probably the most polarizing in the dynasty community. Everyone can see that Breece Hall is a good running back. Jeudy hasn’t produced much yet but the potential is there and he’s now in a great situation with Russell Wilson as his QB. Derek Carr has been good for a while and how has a new elite weapon. The jury is still out on Trey Lance though. Some people think he’s the next great fantasy quarterback while others think he’s not good enough to be a starting NFL QB.
I don’t know if either of these is true, but I’m looking at Trey Lance as if he is Jalen Hurts with job security. If we knew that Jalen Hurts was going to be the Eagle’s long-term starting quarterback, he would be ranked much higher in dynasty. Hurts finished as the QB9 in 2021 but he is ranked in the 10-12 range in dynasty. This is because the risk of him losing his starting job is baked in. Hurts will most likely have another great fantasy season in 2022 due to his elite rushing ability, but will he play well enough as an NFL quarterback for the Eagles not to replace him in the 2023 draft? That’s a huge question mark.
With Lance on the other hand, the 49ers have committed so much draft capital to him that he is going to be their starting quarterback for a while even if he’s not the best NFL quarterback. The 49ers cannot afford to replace him soon if Lance doesn’t pan out. But just because Lance may not be a great NFL quarterback doesn’t mean he can’t be great for fantasy.
Let’s look back to Hurt’s 2021 stats that put him as the QB9. Here are Hurts’ 2021 passing stats.
Yards: 3,144
TDs: 16
INTs: 9
Fantasy Points: 171.76
Pretty mediocre passing stats. If you took away Hurts’ rushing production in 2021 he would have been the QB27 just in front of Daniel Jones. Let’s take a look at the rushing stats now.
Yards: 784
TDs: 10
Fantasy Points: 138.4
It’s crazy how valuable rushing stats are compared to passing. Almost 45% of Hurts’ fantasy points in 2021 came from his rushing stats. This is why Trey Lance can be so valuable in fantasy football. He can be an average passer and still be a top 10 fantasy quarterback because of his rushing ability. In just the 3 games that he saw significant playing time, he took 31 carries for 161 yards, or an average of about 10 carries and 50 rushing yards per game. A base of 5 extra fantasy points with a rushing touchdown mixed in here and there is attainable for Lance in 2022.
Let’s talk about Lance as a passer for a second though. He has some incredible weapons in Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and Brandon Aiyuk, all of whom are awesome after the catch. Let’s be honest with ourselves and give these guys a lot of the credit for making Jimmy Garoppolo a top 20 fantasy quarterback in 2021. We finally got definitive proof that Jimmy G is not an elite quarterback in the 2021 playoffs, he was merely good enough to not blow it, at least until the end. My point is, if a game manager type quarterback can put up a top 20 fantasy season, then the runway is clear for Lance to be top 10.
If the 49ers can model Lance’s passing game after Garropolo’s, meaning he’s not doing anything flashy but getting the job done and minimizing turnovers, his rushing ability can easily vault him into the top 10. This is going to be a run-heavy offense as it has been for years, but as I said, Lance just needs to get the ball to his playmakers and let them do the rest. I think he can be coached to do that at the very least. Lance may never be an elite passer, even though he did look great in college, but if he can be Jimmy G with legs, we will have a top 10 fantasy QB for a long time.
The price is high for Lance. 2 1sts is usually the going rate, but I’d be willing to pay this if I needed a quarterback. I also think Lance has the best shot of all the 2021 rookie quarterbacks to break into the top 10 or even the top 5. I don’t think Trevor Lawrence or Justin Fields have the weapons or coaching around them to make it to the top 10 anytime soon. Mac Jones is what he is, a good NFL quarterback who will run the Patriot's offense but won’t do anything flashy, think a young Jimmy G. Zach Wilson is the dark horse who may be able to break into the top 10 although I don’t think that would happen this year. I do think Trey Lance can be a top 10 quarterback in 2022 though.
If Lance comes out and has a good fantasy and real-life season, he’s going to jump up to the Joe Burrow tier, maybe even the Lamar Jackson/Kyler Murray tier because of the rushing upside. You may be able to get Lance for 2 1sts now, but you won’t be able to if he performs like he’s capable of.
Even if Lance has an average season, like QB15-18, I think he will pretty much hold his value. Lance would truly have to be awful for his value to take a hit, and I think what we saw from him as a rookie proves that he is at least a good fantasy quarterback. Back to the 3 games where he got significant action, (started 2, and took over one game at half), he had 20.38, 15.58, and 20.06 fantasy points. It was a very small sample size, but that was good for an average of 18.67 points, or 317 points extrapolated over 17 games. That would have been good for QB8 just in front of Dak Prescott.
Again, take that small sample of games with a grain of salt, but it still shows that Lance can score fantasy points. With another full off-season under his belt, I think Lance could have a huge breakout in 2022. You might have to pay up for Lance now, but I think you’ll be really glad you did in December.